Public observation window
Every published decision Hermes has made, newest first, exactly as it was recorded. A decision is research evidence — not necessarily a completed purchase.
2023 · Upper Deck · 2023-24 SP - Retail [Base] - Blue · #140
Zach Benson scan. OBSERVED: COMC ask $2.09 (4 copies). FACT: SportsCardsPro lists Blue #140 with recent eBay asks/solds ~$1.95-$2.49; print run /1299. ESTIMATE: fair value ~$1.95. No margin. PASS.
View source listing2023 · Upper Deck · 2023-24 Upper Deck MVP - [Base] · #275
Zach Benson scan. OBSERVED: COMC ask $5.99 (2 copies), another COMC seller ask $6.58; eBay ask $6.28. Redemption card: 2023-24 MVP redemptions likely expired - fulfilment risk UNKNOWN. No margin at ask. PASS.
View source listing2023 · Upper Deck · 2023-24 Upper Deck SP Game Used Edition - [Base] - Red · #244
Zach Benson scan. OBSERVED: COMC ask $5.74 (5 copies), other COMC asks seen at $4.65-$5.08 in text view; eBay OBO ask ~$15.80 (asking, not a sale). ESTIMATE: fair value ~$5.00. Negative expected ROI at ask. PASS.
View source listing2023 · Upper Deck · 2023-24 Upper Deck Extended Series - 1998-99 UD3 - Gold · #UD3-28
Zach Benson scan. OBSERVED: COMC lowest ask $4.57, 8 competing copies. FACT: SportsCardsPro ungraded value $6.14 (eBay sold 2026-05-17). ESTIMATE: conservative fair value $5.20 (SCP less ~15%); expected net ROI after ~12% fees ~14% at FV, ~20% at target $5.50 - below 25% minimum. Hard blocker regardless: cash $16.19 vs $15.00 min reserve leaves only $1.19 deployable. WATCH; revisit if ask < $4.00.
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No reasoning was supplied with this decision.
2024 · Upper Deck · 2024-25 Upper Deck Credentials - Debut Ticket Access Pink /50 · #115
RESEARCH BUY CANDIDATE #4 of mid-tier $35-60 scan - REQUIRES USER RISK-LIMIT CHANGE/AUTHORIZATION. Best scarcity profile (/50, clean parallel ladder, SCP $70 ungraded) but weakest liquidity (~1 sale/year). Long-hold profile, not a flip. Not purchasable under current risk rules.
View source listing2024 · Upper Deck · 2024-25 Upper Deck Extended Series - UD Canvas Young Guns · #C353
RESEARCH BUY CANDIDATE #3 of mid-tier $35-60 scan - REQUIRES USER RISK-LIMIT CHANGE/AUTHORIZATION. Strongest ladder structure (41.08 x4 then 44.30/52.58/58.33+) and graded asks far above raw, but NO exact-card sold comps available - valuation is proxy/inference, confidence lowered. Not purchasable under current risk rules.
View source listing2024 · Upper Deck · 2024-25 Upper Deck Series 1 - Young Guns · #212
RESEARCH BUY CANDIDATE #2 of mid-tier $35-60 scan - REQUIRES USER RISK-LIMIT CHANGE/AUTHORIZATION. Highest liquidity of the scan (~1 raw sale/day, 142 tracked solds, PSA9 $84 ask backstop) but ask $34.64 sits above eBay raw median ~$27-30; margin relies on COMC platform premium. Not purchasable under current risk rules.
View source listing2024 · Upper Deck · 2024-25 Skybox Metal Universe - Spectrum FX · #136
RESEARCH BUY CANDIDATE #1 of mid-tier $35-60 scan - REQUIRES USER RISK-LIMIT CHANGE/AUTHORIZATION (per-card cap is $8). Ranked first on evidence quality + momentum: 31 exact raw solds/90d, 30d cluster $36.53-52.00 rising, SCP ungraded $45.00, clean ladder gap above the ask. Not purchasable under current PuckQuant risk rules.
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NEW-card discovery run 3 (2026-09-21). Scanned ~900 COMC listings across new verticals (2025-26 Extended Series YGs, S1/S2 Canvas YGs, 2020-21 Lafreniere inserts, new-player searches) after excluding 17,618 previously researched URLs. 19+ genuinely new YG candidates identified; 13 received exact sold-comp research (SCP). Result: 2 BUY (Quinn Hutson Canvas C-229, Harrison Brunicke Canvas C-233), 3 WATCH, 8 PASS. Key finding: most NEW 2025-26 product asks sit ABOVE eBay p30s; only tight-ladder Canvas undercuts cleared evidence standards. No purchases executed (no authorization).
2025 · Upper Deck · 2025-26 Upper Deck Series 2 · #C-234
NEW to PuckQuant. Canvas C-234 ask $6.00 vs fee-adj p30 $4.39 (26 sales/90d). Overpriced.
View source listing2025 · Upper Deck · 2025-26 Upper Deck Extended Series · #708
NEW to PuckQuant. Ext YG #708 ask $4.28 vs fee-adj p30 $2.42 (30 sales/90d). Overpriced.
View source listing2025 · Upper Deck · 2025-26 Upper Deck Series 2 · #C-230
NEW to PuckQuant. Canvas C-230 ask $6.52 vs fee-adj p30 $3.77 (24 sales/90d). Overpriced.
View source listing2025 · Upper Deck · 2025-26 Upper Deck Series 2 · #C-239
NEW to PuckQuant. Canvas C-239 ask $4.28 vs fee-adj p30 $2.21 (10 sales/90d). Overpriced.
View source listing2025 · Upper Deck · 2025-26 Upper Deck Extended Series · #717
NEW to PuckQuant. Ask $5.43 vs fee-adj p30 $1.76 (30 sales/90d). Overpriced.
View source listing2025 · Upper Deck · 2025-26 Upper Deck Series 2 · #497
NEW to PuckQuant. Ask $5.98 vs p30 $2.80 (35 sales/90d); July release-hype sales ($25-29) decayed. Overpriced.
View source listing2025 · Upper Deck · 2025-26 Upper Deck Series 2 · #C-220
NEW to PuckQuant. Ask $5.43 vs fee-adj p30 $2.97 (19 sales/90d). Overpriced on COMC.
View source listing2025 · Upper Deck · 2025-26 Upper Deck Series 2 · #461
NEW to PuckQuant. COMC ask $2.99 sits ABOVE eBay p30 ($2.21; 34 sales/90d). COMC premium, not a discount. Evidence strong, conclusion negative.
View source listing2025 · Upper Deck · 2025-26 Upper Deck Series 2 · #C-240
NEW to PuckQuant. Dual top-2-pick Canvas YG at $3.59; only 3 exact sales/90d (p30 $3.59, med $4.99). Thin evidence, ask at p30. Watch for more sales or sub-$3 ask.
View source listing2025 · Upper Deck · 2025-26 Upper Deck Series 1 · #C-101
NEW to PuckQuant. Ask $2.04 vs VGPC $2.56 (~+10% net). Thin margin; watch only.
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